So .. on Monday, I wrote about the local elections .. let's see how my predictions panned out:  

1. I was wrong that Sandy Pasch would beat Wadhwa by 20 points.  The beat-down was THIRTY points.  I think back to when Wadhwa called me about the blog, how incredulous he was when I told him he'd lose by a landslide, as if no one had told him that before.
   
   
   
2. I predicted Wasserman would win by 2% .. looks like I got that flipped.  Alberta Darling won by 2%, who, as a Republican will remain in the minority in the State Senate, which means she'll be powerless once again.  Interesting that even in a Democratic tsunami election, a solid guy like Wasserman couldn't win .. that's what you get with gerrymandered districts.
   
   
   
3. I predicted the Milwaukee County Sales Tax increase would fail by 10%.  I am flabbergasted I got this wrong, as the referendum passed by 2%. 
   
   Honestly, I'm stunned.  I really had the Milwaukee area as a populace with a tremendous anti-tax bias. 
   
   Clearly, there are two groups who voted for this.. First, those voters who think their tax burden is not too high, don't mind increasing it by $63M/year, and want to increase support for Parks, Transit, Emergency Medical Services and Cultural services .. I FULLY understand there are people out there like that, but I'd put them in the 1 out of 5 range.  And I'll salute the folks who voted for this on the basis of its merits: They want more money for parks, et. al., and they are OK paying more for it.  As I said, that IS a legit vote. 
   
   The second group of people are the voters who didn't understand what they were voting for, exactly.  The warnings that the referendum's wording was confusing was spot on .. They read "property tax relief" and said, hey, something for nothing, let's vote for that.   The referendum wording didn't mention the sales tax would COST $130m.  Just that it would save/lower the property tax by $67m.  It's extremely doubtful this group really knew they would be paying $63m in the end.
   
   Well, guess what, County Supervisors who pushed this:  You succeeded, through tomfoolery and confusing language.  You didn't go for a legitimate referendum, where people knew the costs.  You wanted "property tax relief" in the wording so you could fool people into giving up $63M more of their dollars in a shell game.  Congrats on gaining your victory through the ignorance of voters.  You spun the language and won the game.
   
   
   
4. Speaking of something for nothing .. I predicted a 10+ point win for the City of Milwaukee's Sick Pay referendum.  Got that wrong, it won by a whopping 36%.  No surprise there.  Why should 9to5 stop there?  How about some other direct-legislation winners to benefit Milwaukee workers:  "Everyone gets a 50% raise!"  .. "All workers get a company car to drive!" ..  "Massage Mondays!" .. "Free Donut Fridays!" -- All of those would pass with HUGE margins too.
   
   Whoop .. We didn't have to wait long for that first lawsuit, challenging this referendum.

Make sure you read:

1. Local Election Predictions
   
2. WFB Scam Alert
   
3. One less bad guy on WFB's streets!
4. Silver Spring Blame Game
   
5. Solicitors DO NEED PERMITS
   

 Don't want to keep checking for news on this blog?  Have it delivered to your inbox, so you won't miss anything.  Free.  Click here.

 While I doubt many of you care what I think about Tuesday's election .. tough noogies.  I'm going to tell you anyhow.

State Rep:  Sandra Pasch will beat Yash Wadhwa easily, and win by 20 points.  Pasch won a long, tough primary battle against 3 tough, solid candidates.  I attended a forum with Pasch and Wadhwa, and two things were obvious:  Pasch was a solid candidate with a great grip on the issues, and second, Wadhwa was not ready for prime time.  In a Democratic year, Pasch wins this race easily.

State Senate:  This is a tough race to call.  Our district knows all about Wasserman and Darling, as both of them have represented us.  Wasserman is a new face in 2/3rds of Darling's district, so he had a lot of work to do to get known.   There's no doubt there are fewer Republicans in Wisconsin than 2-8 years ago, as people flip parties.   That reduction occurs all across the state, which includes those districts which are "solid Republican" areas.  

I've voted for both Darling and Wasserman, so this is a tough vote to cast.  Indeed, Wasserman has a thin resume of legislative accomplishments while Darling has some, albeit not recently.  Why?  Wasserman has spent his entire career in the Republican dominated Assembly.  Darling was a leader in the Republican Senate until the Dems took that over.   Now that Darling is also in the minority, she's also stuck in nowhere land just like Wasserman.

That's why I'm voting for Wasserman.  Having a rep in the minority party does NOTHING for you, as they are powerless, and none of the leadership listens to anyone in the minority party.   Wasserman is a decent guy.  I remember the first time I wrote him, he called me up one night around 8pm, and the two of us chatted about issues for 30 minutes like two guys drinking beer, eating pizza.  He's very likable, and will do well.  -- My prediction:  Wasserman wins by 2 points.

Milwaukee County Sales Tax Referendum:  This won't pass.  It'll lose by at least 10 points.  There are two types of voters who will vote yes.  The first group is those who want to pay more taxes, believing this sales tax increase will improve the parks.  The second, much larger group will vote yes because they don't understand the issue, and are taken in by the poor wording, suggesting a yes vote will somehow magically lower their tax burden.  It will only shift their tax burden from property tax to sales tax, plus add some.  Don't be fooled.

Finally, While I don't live in the City of Milwaukee .. I'm sure their referendum on mandating sick-leave will pass by 10 or more points.  There are far too many people who will look at that as a vote to give them something for nothing, and while I like this type of "Direct Legislation" referendum by the people, this is a terrible example.  Next, we'll see a referendum to give all employees a weekly massage.  Everyone will vote for that, too.  This is a travesty, and I'll bet a lawsuit will be filed by Wednesday morning on its validity.

Sensenbrenner will win by a million points, as well as the dozen other uncontested races that clutter up our ballot. 

Of course, I don't know what our ballot looks like this year, as it wasn't published in the NOW paper, like it is every other election cycle.    Odd.

Make sure you read:

1. WFB Scam Alert
   
2. One less bad guy on WFB's streets!
3. Silver Spring Blame Game
   
4. Solicitors DO NEED PERMITS
   

 Don't want to keep checking for news on this blog?  Have it delivered to your inbox, so you won't miss anything.  Free.  Click here.

 And lastly, a response from Dan Kohl:

From: Dan Kohl [mailto:dan@kohlforassembly.com]
Sent: Friday, September 12, 2008
To: 'Kevin Buckley'
Subject: RE: Election comments?

Kevin,
 
While I am obviously disappointed, I’m sincerely happy for Sandy Pasch who overcame physical hardship and ran a great race.  I think Sandy will represent our community with distinction.  I am also proud that we ran a positive campaign, and built such a strong group of volunteers and supporters.  I remain deeply committed to the issues that we focused on in this race, from educational reform to strengthening our regional economy, and look forward to future opportunities to make a difference.
 
And I’d like to thank you for giving this race the careful and thoughtful coverage it deserved.  It’s been a pleasure getting to know you.
 
Regards,
 
Dan

 That should wrap up most of the discussion on the 22nd race.     I can get back to Whitefish Bay issues from here out.

Got a note from Andy Feldman, who came up 70 votes short in Tuesday's primary.

I think Andy ran a fantastic campaign, nearly perfect.    I eventually predicted Pasch would best Feldman by 1%, which is exactly what happened .. I had Feldman winning until the Journal-Sentinel endorsed Pasch.  

Andy has a real gift for public speaking, and, as he suggests below, he'll have a future in politics.  At 34, he's got plenty of races in him.   

From: Andy Feldman [mailto:andrew.r.feldman@gmail.com]
Sent: Thursday, September 11, 2008 3:44 PM
To: Kevin Buckley
Subject: Re: Election

I would like to tell everyone how much their enthusiastic support meant to me.  What a group!  Hard working and selfless in the true Wisconsin tradition.  Whether it was by hosting meet and greets, yard signs, postcard writing, distributing literature, donating, and finally voting, I am truly thankful. 
 
There is no doubt:  After working so hard, it is tough to lose by such a close margin – 70 votes.  I'm disappointed, and I know many of you are too.  I was excited to bring my energy and ideas, and by strong background and experience in public policy, to represent my home district in the legislature.        
 
But from a larger perspective, what a remarkable campaign it was!  When I entered the race in March, one candidate had already racked up a slew of endorsements and had a lot of community connections.  And around the time I entered, two other candidates jumped in – one with a famous last name in Wisconsin, and the other who is a village board president.   
 
Six months and 8,000 door knocks later, we came very close to an upset!  People like you, from all over the district, and all walks of life, joined our campaign.  You knew how important it was to make progress on keeping our schools strong, passing comprehensive healthcare reform, and becoming a leader again in protecting our environment.  
 
I wish all the best to Sandy Pasch who won the race, and I ask you to strongly support her in November.  I believe she'll do an excellent job, and I have a ton of respect for the way she kept campaigning after having a serious injury.  And I congratulate Dan Kohl and Guy Johnson for their efforts and strong desire to serve the community.  We can be proud that our district fielded four smart, well-intentioned, personable candidates. 
 
As for me, the next adventure awaits.  I'm a big believer that when one door closes, another opens.  I'm going to take a few days to rest and then will start thinking about what to do next.  There are many ways to advance the public good.
 
And just in case you were wondering, I haven't given up my desire to serve Wisconsin in elected office.  It's a dream deferred, not a dream extinguished.  
 
With thanks and gratitude,

Andy

Good luck on your next project, Andy.

 Sandy Pasch, victorious in her race for Sheldon Wasserman's seat in the 22nd, has responded below.

(Yes, yes, I know.  There's still a general election to get past.  As long as Pasch doesn't call Wadhwa's plans for the 22nd "lipstick on a pig," so he can claim phony outrage, she'll be fine.)

From: Sandra Pasch
Sent: Thursday, September 11, 2008
To: Kevin Buckley
Subject: Re: Election

Kevin, thank you for the opportunity to extend my gratitude to your readers. I appreciate each and every vote I received in the primary, and respect the votes cast for my opponents. I would like everyone in our community to know that, assuming I win in November, I intend to represent all of them well.

I also have great respect for the hard work that Dan, Andy and Guy put into the campaign, and I look forward to working with them in the future.

There are two forums I am scheduled to attend for the November election, and I assume Yash Wadwha will be there as well. Those are:

Jewish Federation, Thursday, October 16th, 7pm at JCC
North Shore Rotary, Monday, October 20th, 12:00pm at Pandl’s

The pre-primary forums were very well attended, and I hope we have as many people come out for the upcoming forums.

Thanks again,

Sandy Pasch

Hopefully, these new forums will allow the candidates to speak in more than 60-second sound-bites!

Finally .. to the hundreds of new readers of this blog .. welcome!  The past few weeks have been dedicated to the 22nd race .. future entries will mostly be about Whitefish Bay.  Stick around!   Even better .. no need to check the blog every day to see if something has been written ..  Have it delivered to your inbox, so you won't miss anything.  Free.  Click here.

 Got one response from one of the candidates.   Still waiting on the others...

Kevin:
 
Thanks for the voice you've provided for the 22nd assembly race - you certainly helped to fill the media gap in the coverage of local issues. 

I'm actually very happy that Sandy won.  She deserves the win and will certainly be a capable representative for us in Madison after she wins again in November.  High quality women in elected positions are a great benefit to the bodies they serve in.  I experience this perspective first-hand in Shorewood with the three women who are on our Village Board; Dawn Anderson, Ellen Eckman and Margaret Hickey. 

Reflecting on this campaign, I would hope for a bit more moderation in the future for dollars being spent.  I wish to think that $20,000 per candidate would be adequate to get the word out to a district that has a population of 55,000 citizens. 

My guess is that we just witnessed a total expenditure of over $250,000 for a four person primary, and I don't mean to sound like sour grapes because I only accounted for about 2 percent of the total spent.  I do believe that this race served as an example of hitting diminishing returns as it relates to campaign spending.
 
Regards,
 
Guy

Guy is correct about the spending, although one candidate skewed the results.  These dollar figures on spending were prior to Sept 1, so they may have gone up.

Wow .. I've watched the results roll in .. First, Kohl was in the lead by 20 points.  I'm guessing River Hills reported first.

His lead was short lived, as Pasch sprang into the lead after ~50% of the vote was counted, but Feldman was always 2% behind.

Pasch held that lead until 94% of the vote ..  then FELDMAN TOOK THE LEAD! 

97% ..  Feldman's lead down to 15 votes!  FIFTEEN!

3% outstanding vote?  What's that?  Maybe absentee votes from one village haven't been tallied?  Could be a long night.

Update: PASCH WINS BY 70 VOTES.

Wow.  That's one narrow margin.  Does Wisconsin have a law that triggers a recount when the difference is so small? 

Let's look back to my predictions from last week:

1. Pasch - 31%  (37%)
2. Feldman - 30% (36%)
3. Kohl - 21% (23%)
4. Johnson - 18% (5%)

I was pretty damn close, picking 1-2-3-4.  I'd predicted Pasch wins by 1%, and that's what happened. 

I was surprised at the low total for Johnson.  I figured he would do very well in Shorewood .. I guess when you get outspent 10 to 1, you lose big.  I miscalculated .. Shorewood is too liberal to vote for a moderate like Johnson.

I was pretty close on Kohl, though.  He spent $171,000 on this race, triple Pasch and Feldman .. I think he just got outworked by those two, who were tireless, and perhaps had more captivating candidacies. 

I was a tiny bit off on Sensenbrenner/Burkee.  I figured Sensie would win by 70%.  It looks like it's closer to 60%.   Regardless, my advice to forget that race, focus on the 22nd was spot on.

Click here for the election results:  http://elections.todaystmj4.com/G4009.htm

Will write more tomorrow with any new info.

MORNING UPDATE : Sorry .. still know nothing about this race.   Clearly, I'd like to write a post on the winner and her campaign.  But for all we know, the race results aren't final.  70 votes is a tiny margin.

I've emailed all the candidates for statements.  Dunno if Feldman conceded .. dunno if there's a recount possibility.  About the only thing I do know is .. Wisconsin does not have an automatic recount for close races.

Well .. here we are.  Today is the big primary election (Tuesday, Sep 9) .. I've written a dozen articles on the 22nd Assembly race to fill Wasserman's spot, and this should be the final one.
 
First, it's really too bad that the primary forces you to vote for only one party.  Tuesday's ballot will have only three races, two Democratic races (22nd and County Clerk) and one Republican (Sensenbrenner/Burkee).
 
In all three cases, the primary IS the election.  The Milwaukee County Clerk position is between 4 Democrats .. the 22nd District is heavily Democratic .. And no Democrat will be running against the winner of Sensie/Burkee.

This stinks, because you can't vote in both primaries, yet for all three, the Primary winner will win in November.

So, first, if you're a Republican living in the 22nd district and want to show your support (or rejection) of Sensenbrenner, you have a problem.  I'd say, skip that primary.  I read an educated guess that Sensenbrenner will trounce Burkee by 70 points.  Sensenbrenner will outspend Burkee 10 to 1.  The 8th WI-US District is HUGE, the 22nd district is just a tiny chunk;  that election will be decided elsewhere.  -- Mental note, Burkee was endorsed by the Journal Sentinel.

We've got 4 fine candidates for the 22nd, and each one appeals to a different kind of voter.  That's what today's entry is about.  It's a rough summary of all the observations I've made over the past two months. 

Your first question is, of course, where are these guys on the issues?  Answer:  They're all pretty much the same.  They're all Democrats without legislative records.  They're all for health care, the environment, allowing illegal immigrants entrance and in-state tuition to UW Schools, and are against the expansion of school choice.  They're all reading from the same Democratic playbook, with variations here and there.  I'll focus on the intangibles:

Andy Feldman - Andy is probably the smartest guy on the ticket.  He's a natural at talking to crowds, and he's got policy down pat.   He's run the smartest campaign, doing all the right things.  He's young (34) but has a great academic background (Swarthmore, and a PhD from Harvard).   He's probably the most "progressive" of the lot, so if anti-poverty, health care, and the environment are your thing .. he's your man.

Dan Kohl - Dan is a really solid candidate.  Well educated, well connected, well spoken.  He's got quality stances on issues.  He's not always talking off the Democratic game plan, he's somewhat moderate.  Probably the best schmoozer of the bunch.  Honestly, with his stature, he would be the most effective representative of the lot.   BUT.  Weighing him down is his famous name, in that, at first, he went with "It's about me, not (uncle) Herb," but later, he had Sen. Kohl write a letter for his campaign, clearly trying to trade on his famous Uncle.   Then it came out that he's outspending the other candidates 3 to 1, mostly with his own money.   So if you can get past that, Dan is your man.

Guy Johnson - As Village President of Shorewood, Johnson is the only candidate with elective government experience.  He's a solid, down to earth, intelligent, honest candidate.  His most compelling trait is that he's clearly the most moderate, independent minded.  He's got the tallest hill to climb, as he hasn't loaned his campaign thousands, like Kohl, Pasch, and Feldman all have.  If you're a Republican, you would cross over and vote for Johnson.  The winner only needs about 30% of the vote.  Get a chunk of moderates/Republicans to vote for him, he wins.  

Sandy Pasch - If you liked Dr. Wasserman's focus on medical issues, Pasch is your vote, as she has a nursing background.  While I've pressed this issue a number of times, that Pasch's focus is too health-care oriented, and that we had (and will continue to have) Dr. Wasserman representing us, Pasch has tried to show folks she's more than just a one-issue candidate, and I'm certain that's true.  

But her clear priority remains health care.  Asked "What's your #1 legislative priority?"  Her answer: "Mental Health Parity."   Raise your hand if you know what "mental health parity" is without googling it.   Does that match the #1 priority of the 22nd district?  

That all being said .. I think Pasch is going to win, in a close race with Feldman.  She does have a lot going for her: Great campaign organization, she sought and received the endorsements of many organizations, she's a high quality candidate and good public speaker.   Being a woman helps, too.  We need far more women in all levels of government;  Men have done a pretty craptacular job running the show.  Getting the Journal-Sentinel endorsement puts her over the top.  I think she wins by 1 point over Feldman.   She would do fine as our rep.

Finally .. vote on Tuesday.  I've given you a guide, figure out who you want to vote for, and get out there.  WFB had a 44% turnout for the April 2008 election, let's get to 50% for this important election, on who we send to Madison.

If you don't know enough, click here for more coverage of this race, including the candidates' own responses to this blog, and videos of each candidate at the public forums.

Third in a series of letting candidates for Tuesday's Democratic primary get some pub here on the blog.. I have an email from Guy Johnson.

As I wrote a few days ago, I think Johnson got shafted when the Milwaukee Area Jewish Committee chose a public forum date they knew he could not attend.  (No answer from MAJC, concerning the scheduling issue.)

So I'm pleased Johnson wrote something for us .. and to further help the readers know the Guy, in light of his forced absence from the WFB forum last week, I'm including some comments he made at this morning's Education forum at Nicolet HS.

Subject: Blog response
Date:     Fri, 5 Sep 2008 17:43:25 -0500   
From:     Guy Johnson <guyj1@sbcglobal.net>

Kevin .. thanks for this opportunity:

A few thoughts on Tuesday's election:

1.    A big thing that I bring to the table in this election is my experience as president of the Shorewood Village Board.  I've actually shepherded legislation that got a smoking ban passed in Shorewood; that passed an environmental shoreland ordinance that recently won an award from Citizens for a Scenic Wisconsin for outstanding work in beautification of the Milwaukee River; and that implemented a master plan for our business district that serves as a guide for development for the next 20 years.  These examples are not just things that were talked about, but rather sealed with votes after extensive deliberations that I oversaw as board president.  

2.    Moderation is in order as it relates to Tuesday's primary election. I budgeted $15,000 for my effort to win the seat, figuring to spend $5,000 for the primary, and then, if chosen to be in the general election, another $10,000.  But the ante went up.  As of last week's reporting, the four candidates have expended over $200,000!  This is just for a primary election for one of ninety-nine state assembly seats.  The expenditure breakdown is $131K for Kohl, $45K for Feldman, $28K for Pasch and $4K for Johnson.  A neighbor who brings me the daily barrage of glossy colored campaign flyers that fill his mailbox every day says he will feel like the honeymoon will be over next Tuesday when his mailbox goes empty except for a few bills and catalogues.  I can hardly imagine the amount of paper used over the past few months to feed this frenzy.


3.    We've had a few candidates' forums over the past month.  I want to especially mention one that took place this week at Nicolet High School cosponsored by the Southeast Wisconsin Schools Alliance and the various north shore school districts.  The format of this event allowed for ample response time by the candidates and the questions were extremely well thought out.  In the postscript below, I offer a sample of the questions with my own responses.  

I look forward to serving you in the state assembly.  Please contact me if you have any questions.  Don't forget to vote on Tuesday.

Sincerely,

Guy Johnson   --   332-2475   --   guyj1@sbcglobal.net   --   www.electguyjohnson.com

-----------------

Nicolet Education Forum Questions:

What are the strengths and weaknesses in Wisconsin's funding of public education? Are there improvements you would support?

Guy Johnson: The greatest strengths, oddly enough, are it is legal and fair.  Some may argue about "fair", since the formula calls for property-rich districts to help fund property-poor districts.  The taxpayer has to remember that it is a statewide system and children who graduate from out state school districts come to our area to work and live.  We want them to be well-educated too.

We have to be extremely careful in making any changes to the formula.  When such changes occur they will inevitably be followed with action in court.  The courts in Wisconsin have found the current funding system to be legal.  Pretend we were to change any aspect of the system.  Let's take the example of the "tertiary aid" portion, the one that causes richer districts to support poorer ones.  Let's fiddle with the formula so Shorewood will receive a greater benefit.  Oconto Falls will be hurt by it unless we funnel more money into the entire system and that won't happen; there is already a looming budget deficit.  Thus, Oconto Falls will have to ask whether the new formula is legal—does it provide equity across the state.  On the other hand, I will not advocate any reduction in spending for schools.  We're stuck with the status quo for now.  Two governors, McCallum and Doyle, put together blue ribbon panels to look at the formula, one headed by Morris Andrews (WEA) and one headed by Mike Specter (Quarles and Brady and prior Shorewood School Board President).  Both advised some changes, the legislature stayed put.  Let's get them both out, bring together a panel of school board members (out state and local), legislative representatives (out-state and local) and some business managers of school districts and let's focus on this with vigor for six months.  Then let's make new legislation.  I will warn you—someone's ox will be gored!
 
Large urban school districts, like Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS), face different challenges than do the suburban school districts represented at this forum. In your opinion, what challenges does MPS face? What specific initiatives would you support to strengthen MPS?

GJ:  Let's start by recognizing the racial and economic difficulties here.  Milwaukee faces huge problems brought on by rust-belt economics that have not been fixed.  There are not enough jobs available for families in the inner city that pay a living wage.  The schools are faced with children who come through the doors who are impoverished.  There must be wrap-around programs for pre-schoolers through high school aged students.  Strong curriculum and teacher training programs have to be linked to strong after school programming that supports reading and mathematics for children in grades pre-K through 6 and reading in the content areas for children in grades 6-12.  This will cost money.  It is a program that has begun to see some success (see KIPP Schools) in some urban centers.  We have to bring it here. 

Neighborhood schools really took a hit in the Journal Sentinel articles recently, but they are conceptually best idea.  If your child goes to a strong pre-school program that feeds into a strong elementary program that feeds into a strong middle/high school program, the neighborhood will begin to see schools as central to redevelopment.  Pair this with other neighborhood redevelopment issues and you will see success in the long run.  Add pre-schools and wrap-around programs for small children and you have made a real difference.  This will cost money.  We should spend it.  I'd rather fund this than Choice.
 
Chapter 220, the voluntary integration program between Milwaukee and its suburbs, comes under scrutiny during each budget debate.
a.      What impact has the Chapter 220 program had on public education in Wisconsin?
b.      What do you think the Chapter 220 program should look like in the future? What changes would you like to make to the program?

GJ:  a.  It is a program that supports cultural diversity.  It has done so.  Also, children in the Chapter 220 program attending suburban schools have very high post-high school attendance rates.  Shorewood has huge success in reading and mathematics at the elementary level.  Minority children in Shorewood are very successful students.  This is because the focus of the Chapter 220 program there is "teach all children to be successful readers and mathematicians". 

b.  The Chapter 220 program has been seeing a steady decline in numbers of participating students.  Parents have more choices now than before with both Charter and Choice programs.  Chapter 220 should remain in existence as another choice for parents.  It is much less expensive than the Choice programs, and has a proven success rate where Choice schools have, at best, a spotty record.

The September Campaign Finance reports came out .. here are some highlights:

Dan Kohl has raised a whopping $171,000.  HOWEVER .. he himself donated $5k, and loaned the campaign an incredible $100k.  So he's really raised $66,000 from other folks.  29% of that was raised outside Wisconsin.  He's spent $51k on mailings, $30k on 3 polls. 

Sandy Pasch has raised $45k, $13k of which are loans for a net of $32k in donations.

Andy Feldman has raised $49k, $30k of which are loans, for a net of $19k in donations. 

Guy Johnson has raised about $5k, none of which are loans.

WOW.  So we're at nearly $270k spent on this PRIMARY race, nearly 2/3rds of which spent via the Kohl campaign.   His $100k loan is a whopper.  Even Feldman's $30k loan is huge, for a guy whose employment is "full time candidate."

I'm going to take a complete crapshoot in the dark guess here, on the results for next Tuesday:

1. Pasch - 31%
2. Feldman - 30%
3. Kohl - 21%
4. Johnson - 18%

Just a gut feel.  I still have Johnson as a dark horse, as Republicans could easily cross over and vote for him as the most moderate of the group.  The question is, how many Republicans will even vote on Tuesday (their only race is Burkee/Sensenbrenner a.k.a. David/Goliath) .. and have any Republicans been watching this race closely enough to know Guy Johnson is the moderate?   -- And Kohl could perform better than I've predicted.  That kind of money buys a lot of presence.  It all depends on who's reading the mail, and will they remember Kohl's mailings, etc.

Actual Reports: .. (ht: Michael Horne)

• Kohl
• Pasch
• Feldman
• Johnson

Sent: Thursday, September 04, 2008 8:35 AM
To: KevinBuckleyWFB@gmail.com
Subject: Village Spillage

 
Hi Kevin,

I've been reading your blog with interest. Thanks for the opportunity to respond to your postings and comments.

You are 100% correct that health care reform is at the top of my agenda. It is also the number one issue that voters in our area want our legislature to address. That is supported by a survey done by Sheldon Wasserman's office in 2006 (see the section on legislative priorities) and anecdotally in conversations I have with voters every day. 

While health care is a critical focus, it is not the only issue I will champion in Madison. Clearly we have to address multiple areas to make our district and Wisconsin the fertile and vibrant location that we all want it to be for business, jobs, education and the environment. I think your readers would agree that a "healthy community" is balanced in all of those areas.

However—since you state that health care isn't one of your top five issues, I would just like to point out the far-reaching consequences that rising health care costs have. I've talked with people in our district who say they'd love to start a new business, but they can't because they can't afford to pay their own health care. I've talked with business owners who would love to hire more employees, but again, health care costs are prohibitive. Health care costs prevent business from starting, growing and competing.

Rising health care costs also reduce the average person's disposable income, which not only affects their own quality of life, but also prevents spending on goods and services that keep our economy healthy. Rising health care costs can mean the difference between self-sustaining families and more people in poverty. So even if you don't feel health care is a top issue for the 22nd Assembly district on its own merits, there are plenty of other reasons it should be a top priority.

Another benefit of my health care background—and a key differentiator between my opponents and me—is that I recognize how integral legislative policy is to the everyday lives of real people. I have worked shoulder to shoulder with law enforcement, health-care agencies and other social service providers in Milwaukee County as they struggle to provide services within our current legislative framework. I can easily see how that parallels our education system, business community and environmental arena. Public policy is not theoretical or academic for me—it is real life. I know I can improve the lives of the people in our district if elected to the legislature.

As people who know me will attest, I'm a fighter, and I make no apologies for it—but I also have a record of building bridges that benefit all sides of an issue. That's why the Journal Sentinel and community leaders like District Attorney John Chisholm endorse me—I've worked hard to bring diverse groups together to solve tough problems. The Milwaukee County Crisis Intervention Team I helped found and the Crisis Intervention Partner program I founded are two examples, but I have been knee deep in numerous other initiatives to improve the quality of life in our community. These experiences taught me it takes more than wishful thinking to "reach across the aisle" to get things done. It takes skill and hard work—skill I've proven I have and hard work I've proven I can do.

As far as the issues…I consider myself a progressive Democrat. As you've pointed out in your past blogs, the differences between my position on health care, education, the economy and the environment and those of the other 22nd Assembly candidates are relatively minor. Like my opponents, I hold advanced degrees that will help inform public policy. Like my opponents, I have and will continue to sit down with experts on key issues to ensure the policies I help craft in the legislature do the most possible good.

So the question becomes—who is the best person to make sure these issues are addressed?

I say without hesitation that I am that person. I am the only candidate with the health care background to tackle the number one issue of voters in our area, and with the exception of Guy Johnson, I am the only one with the proven leadership skills in public service to get things done for the people of our district. I have lived and worked in this community for over 20 years and understand the issues important to the people who live here. I am qualified, I am proven and I am passionate about serving our community.

Changing topics…there is one more opportunity for voters to meet the 22nd Assembly candidates this week:

Friday 9/5/08 7:30am-9:30 am Southeast Wisconsin Schools Alliance at Nicolet High School Cafeteria

I hope many of your readers will come to see and meet me and the other candidates for 22nd Assembly.

Thanks again for the opportunity to weigh in.

Sandy Pasch

I support Healthy Wisconsin.  While it may need some tweaking, it does much to correct problems in the provision of health care: removing the link to employment (worked well in the 1940's when costs were minimal - not so today), controlling costs, and numerous other initiatives.  We still need to improve access and quality for those in under-funded programs.

Very early this morning, I received an email from Guy Johnson, responding to my previous entry about the Milwaukee Area Jewish Committee's forum for the 22nd Assembly District's candidates, which included Wadhwa, Pasch, Feldman, and Kohl.  

In it, I mentioned Johnson's absence from the forum, and expressed my disappointment and hinted he had "other priorities."  I admit, something else may be afoot.

From Johnson:

In early August, I was invited by the Milwaukee Area Jewish Committee to participate in this forum, and was asked if I would be available either on August 28 or September 2.  I informed the event planners that August 28 would work but that September 2 conflicted with a crucial board meeting... We are at a critical junction on this $4 million project and it is very complex as it relates to substantial state funding, our need for good street-scaping design, potential bike accommodations, and meeting the requirements of our Central District Master Plan. 

Then I received notice that the assembly candidate forum would indeed take place on September 2 and was informed that if need be, I could send a "surrogate" to attend for me.  Needless to say, I was very disappointed with this development.  I weighed the tough choice I faced and determined that my obligation to carry on with the critical deliberations of the reconstruction project was paramount. 

My accountability to my constituents with such an important agenda item trumps all.  And I will be happy to expand on the naivety of anyone who believes that the date of this critical board meeting could be easily changed.

So, that begs the question .. why was September 2nd chosen, and not August 28th?   I am really, really hoping there is a solid reason for this, and not some shenanigans.   Really.  Hoping.  I think we need an explanation from the Milwaukee Area Jewish Committee, post haste.

In light of this, I will post  Johnson's answers to two of the questions I'd written about yesterday:

What is your #1 priority as a legislator?

Guy Johnson:   Without question – the structural budget deficit that Wisconsin faces.  Without solving this, all else can’t truly be addressed.

What would you like your first piece of legislation to be?

Guy Johnson:   Pass a comprehensive ban on smoking in public facilities.  We are doing it in Shorewood -- Minnesota and Illinois have done it.  It’s time for Wisconsin, and it should be a quick hit success for Wisconsin!

I went to tonight's candidate forum for Sheldon Wasserman's 22nd Assembly District seat, held at Whitefish Bay's Library ..  We had a great crowd of about 120, standing room only.

One unfortunate element of the night was that Guy Johnson had a "big meeting" in Shorewood, and could not attend.   This was extraordinarily disappointing on many levels.   Tonight's forum was important, and you can draw your own conclusions about a candidate who has another priority.

I was excited to see Dr. Enrique Figueroa as the moderator for the forum.  He is one of the hosts for the wonderful series "4th Street Forum" on Milwaukee's public TV.  I was hopeful that a forum moderated by Figueroa would have some substance beyond what the last forum, in Shorewood, provided.

Big swing and a miss. 

I thought the Shorewood forum, with its 90 second limit on answers was bad.  Tonight's forum, with 60 second answers, was abysmal.   The 1-minute limit allowed each candidate enough time to recite the company line sound-bite.   For an individual like myself, who was interested in trying to compare and contrast each candidate and pick one, this forum's Jeopardy Lightning Round format was a complete waste of time.

Not to mention some of the questions.  "What skills do you have to work with rural legislators?  .. What skills do you have to work with legislators who do not share your views?"  Each candidate answered "Well, I'd like to bridge divides, stand by my principles, reach across the aisle and collaborate.  Oh, and I'm really friendly."  Are you kidding me?  What kind of answer did they expect out of the candidates?  Think one of them has a secret super-power that enables them to make everyone magically cooperate? 

"What are the critical Great Lakes issues?"  Each candidate answered that one as if they were reading off of wikipedia.

Now, at the last forum, I graded each candidate on each question.  Because of tonight's format, and the incredible similarity of the answers from each candidate, I gave up the grading pen.   I decided early in the forum that I could only give some general impressions.

Good questions:

What's your #1 priority?

• Kohl - Education, and education funding
• Pasch - Health Care
• Wadhwa - Didn't answer the question.  He recited his principles, which cover everything from taxes to education to health care.
• Feldman - Health Care, with a tie-in to the goal of reducing state budget expenditures on Health Care, through reforming the system.

What would you like your first piece of legislation to be?

• Wadhwa - Again, didn't really answer the question. 
• Feldman - Health Care legislation, like Healthy Wisconsin / Dane County
• Kohl - Change the way we fund government in Wisconsin.  Spoke specifically about a proposal he liked that bumped the State Sales Tax up 1% to fund education and reduce the property tax burden.
  
• Pasch - Mental Health Parity

General impressions.

First, let's deal with Yash Wadhwa.    Yash, I love you, man.  You're a fine gentleman with a nice family.  You got a lot of great laughs tonight, and if we wanted a comic for the state assembly, you would win in a landslide.  But your answers were completely mushy.   With a different slate of candidates, you may have a shot.  Your command of the issues paled in comparison with your three competitors.  Sorry. 

The other three, Pasch, Feldman, and Kohl .. were really outstanding in their 60 second soundbites.  The 22nd district is very lucky to have these guys to pick from.  Each could be a winner.

Feldman wasn't as commanding as he was at the Shorewood forum.  He continues to be great at public speaking, taking bad questions and weaving them with good thoughts.   But doing that, often takes more than 60 seconds, so he never quite got his talkative-groove on.

Kohl did a great job as well.  He's definitely the business man of the lot.  He's got the right answers, and has a certain smooth delivery.  I thought he had a few unique answers tonight, that differentiated him from the bunch.   Examples.  While talking about $4 gas prices, the other candidates bemoaned, in unison, the lack of mass transit.  Kohl brought up Gov. Doyle's Global Warming Commission's report, and Wisconsin's egregious Minimum Markup Law which he hoped to repeal. -- On the Drinking/Driving laws, the other candidates sung about increasing penalties, increasing treatment .. Kohl was the only one to mention the new idea of lowering the drinking age from 21, which he strongly opposed.   Nicely done, Dan Kohl.

Pasch, I think, made great headway since the last forum.  She had decent answers at the Shorewood forum .. but tonight, she showed a greater command of issues .. and more importantly, had a certain swagger, as if she knew she was the front-runner.  Getting the Journal-Sentinel's endorsement is a huge feather in her cap, and perhaps that's what has generated her additional confidence.  

Humorously, in Pasch's very first answer tonight, she mentioned she'd been told she "emphasizes health care issues too much".  (cough) .. I wonder where she got that idea?   I have this feeling that come next Tuesday night, and November 4th, I'll be watching her prove she's far more than a one-issue candidate.

----

UPDATE: VIDEO - Opening Statements

Later this week, I will conclude this series with some final thoughts to help you try to choose the candidate who will best represent you in Wisconsin.

The primary is 6 days away!

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To get you up to speed .. Democratic candidate Andy Feldman sent me an email, responding to some thoughts I had written about last week.  I posted them, but he later asked for them to be taken down.  I posted a retraction, explaining what had occurred, which, let's face it, didn't look good.

So Feldman took some time and re-wrote his original email to me.  I painstakingly compared the two versions to determine what had changed .. what would he write privately that wouldn't be for public consumption?  The answer: not much.  He's removed a couple of  minor items aimed at other candidates, and re-phrased his Sales Tax answer, reduced a few casual sentences to more formal ones, and in general, increased the eloquence (and puff) factor here and there.

In my opinion, almost nothing of substance has changed .. and I will publish it in its entirety, below.   I wish this situation would have unfolded differently.   Now you know I'm not playing favorites.

I continue to invite the other three candidates to respond, as well.   With the dearth of media coverage for this race, blog traffic is running 2-3x average, so your words would get to far more eyeballs than "doing doors" for a week.

-------- Original Message --------

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In keeping with publishing candidate responses to my commentaries on their campaigns, Yash Wadhwa's response will be printed below.

A few items:

Generally, I do not wish to publish the typical candidate propaganda here.  They need to do that on their own dime.   This forum is meant to promote intelligent discussion relevant to the topics I raise, not campaign puffery.   Wadhwa's is some of both, but I'm letting it slide.

Next, Wadhwa suggests he has a chance, due to the support of Scott Walker in the 22nd district.  I'd point him to the City of Milwaukee, where Walker has done well, yet the remainder of the Republican slate in the city has been white-washed.  Walker is the candidate you cross-over for.  Wadhwa may be a good guy, but he's no Scott Walker.  ("I know Scott Walker.  I went to school with Scott Walker.  You, sir, are no Scott Walker!")

Finally .. doors.  Doors, doors, doors.  All you candidates are so proud of your door count.   It certainly helps, but you know what also helps?  Marketing.  Mail.  Yard Signs.  Media attention.   Oh, and issues.  That too.  You need to be on the right side of all that before your "door count" matters.  Just saying.

Oh, and remember .. Wadhwa will not be on the primary ballot, as he has no Republican foe.  The September primary for the 22nd district is to pick the Democrat who will go against Wadhwa.   So for those destined to vote Wadhwa, focus on the Dems over the next couple weeks, for your 2nd choice candidate.   To a large extent, this letter is premature.

On with the show:

-------- Original Message --------

Feldman responds .. no, wait, he doesn’t.

I’ve gotten a number of emails about an article I wrote yesterday that disappeared, and I need to address what happened.

After Tuesday’s article on the 22nd race, candidate Andy Feldman wrote me an email to clarify his positions and, to an extent, challenge the thought that he was, as I wrote, the furthest-left candidate in the race.

It was well written, issue oriented, cohesive, and smart.  I'd really thought it was written for an audience of thousands, not just myself.

It was media savvy as, well, as let’s face it, the coverage of this race is pitiful.   I'd written a public piece that painted him in a less than rosy light, and he responded quickly and articulately, and to an extent, changed my opinion. 

Generally, I do not publish emails sent to me without permission, but this one was well written, and painted the candidate in a positive light.  In my opinion, it would do two things .. possibly correct some mis-conceptions that I'd written about, and inform the public on his specific views, written straight from him.

So I proofed it for grammar, and published it.  I emailed Feldman, debated a few of his points, and told him I'd published his email so others could read and be informed.  
A few hours later, he emailed me and asked that I remove it.  He said it was written just for me, to get my support, late at night (3am) and he would have written it differently in the daylight.  And, that he'd be "mailing out lit pieces to explain (his) views in detail."

On his request, I pulled his email from publication.

I strongly urged him to reconsider, as I believed it was a well written piece, including a modicum of candor.  His lit pieces, like all the political mail we are now receiving, will be widely dismissed by the public as biased propaganda and mostly chucked into the recycling bin.  

In the end, what do us voters really know about these candidates before we pull the lever?  For most, not much.  While we may meet these guys on our doorsteps, raise your hand if you've had a meaningful discussion about issues while they were standing there?  Hell, I'm a political guy, and I can't say I have.

Usually, it goes like this: "Hello, good to meet you, oh, you're running?  Oh, you believe in public service and want clean government, low taxes, and great education for our kids?  Super!  Good luck to you."

How else are we informed about candidates?  Sure, the two forums help (next one: Tuesday 9/2, WFB Library, 7pm), but we're talking a couple hundred people who attend.  There are thousands of voters.  Through political literature?  We're marketed to by political mail, but not informed.  Through the media?  Hah.  Did you see this piece of fluff in the NorthShoreNOW?  Each candidate got 2-3 whopping sentences to explain their candidacy.   Not even close to enough info to choose a candidate.

I think of blogs as great ways to inform the public on candidate's views, and am disappointed Feldman, a member of the internet generation, would pass up this opportunity, to inform with candor instead of the usual political route of careful phraseology that won't bring trouble.

Sure, I published his email without permission, but what did he expect, sending a high-quality email about a blog entry to its author?  If he's lucky, two months from now, he'll be a public official whose EVERY email will be available through public information requests.

I write the above with much hesitation, and allowed 24 hours for the situation to be resolved, but have received no response.  Feldman may be your best candidate, and may not be the farthest-left candidate I painted him as, but now, you may never know.

Well, I tried.

And he's welcome to try again, as are all the other candidates.

(All candidates and voters, are encouraged to write comments below, challenge my thoughts and change our minds!)
 

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